Market Review of 2009

Well the numbers are not yet in for December, and they won’t be for a couple of weeks.  I have access to great statistics, they compile the numbers daily, weekly and monthly, and I get to share the details with you.

I started by checking out many, many different charts to look for what I believe is the best representation of our market currently and over this past year.  This chart, shows the annual appreciation based on monthly sales price per square foot.  I have 2002 and 2003 on this chart to show what a ‘normal’ year appreciation looked like.  In 2004, and 2005 we saw huge appreciation that is not typical of a normal market and then in 2006, 2007, and 2008 we saw the bubble pop.

Back in about April we started to see changes, the number of homes being purchased increased, the inventory started reducing, and the plummeting price drops slowed.  In a ‘normal’ market there is around a 6% increase to value each year.   In April we hit the low of 44% loss and as I write this we are sitting on average across the entire valley 12% loss.

OK so when your looking at losses, none are going to be good news.  But the dramatic change from earlier this year indicates to me, that we are moving toward  a normalized market.

Let me say again, that this is an over view of the entire Valley of the Sun, each smaller area may tell a different story and usually does


Part of the story that needs to be told is the market by price.  A look at inventory broken down by price tells a great story.  In a ‘normal’ market there is about 6 months (180 days) worth of inventory.  Less and you have sellers market, more and you have a buyers market.

What is interesting is we have all 3 happening at the same time.  A price point of  $300-400k is our ‘normal’ market with about 6 months of inventory.  Prices higher are in the buyers market and lower are in a sellers market.

So depending on the price point you are purchasing in, you may find yourself in a bidding war, and some sales prices over asking.