Inventory is down, pending closing up, all improvements

Here in the greater Phoenix area there is a lot of talk about the changing market.  Our outlying areas have seen the greatest recovery.  Well, let me rephrase that.  Those outer areas, prices have dropped to such a level that people are jumping in to purchase.

days-inventory

This chart is the current inventory, the number of homes currently on the market actively listed, divided by the number of homes that are closing.  Giving us an idea how long it would take at the current level to sell all of the homes available.  Back in April of 2008 there was a 420 day supply of homes.  That is a lot of homes, and not many people purchasing.

Move forward a little more than a year, and we have 209 day supply of homes.  Currently we have people buying homes, and fewer on the market.

active-listings-2

The first chart must be looked at comparing it to active listings.  Together they tell a better picture.  This is the chart of active listings.   I included the 2002 and 2003 data because they show a ‘normal’ market.

You can see the inventory levels rose and reached their highest point in late 2007, and remained high all through 2008.  The first part of 2009 we see the number of listings is reducing, currently at 41,197 active listings.

pending-listings

The last chart to compare is the pending listings.  Is this a fluke or going to last.  This chart is jagged, due to many closing at the end of the month.  You can see the current pending listings is high.  Due in part to lenders taking longer to approve buyers.

From this information we know there are lots of people purchasing homes.  The inventory levels are dropping,  and there are lots of homes pending and about to close.  At least for the next few months, the Phoenix market is moving!

Housing Market Recovery in the wind

Who would have thought that the out lying areas would recover first.   We are seeing a huge number of homes selling in the outer communities like Queen Creek, Buckeye, and Maricopa.  Some of these towns are showing a 3 month supply of homes.  (the number of active homes on the market divided by the number of homes that sold in the past month.)  That is a huge difference from about a year ago when those areas had over a year supply of homes. 

Since the prices plummeted in those areas, we are seeing prices under 100k for a 2000 square foot home. Once again, the “drive till you can afford it”  is back. 

FHA requires 3 1/2% down payment, and you can ask for the seller to contribute up to 6% to closing costs.  With the first time home buyer tax credits, buying a home is back on the “to do list” in a big way.  

This just in: People are buying homes!

Chicken Little’s  “The Sky is Falling” is everywhere in the papers.  I figured a little positive press would be welcoming.

 

People are buying homes!  

 

There it has been said, now for the proof.  January statistics are in and the Arizona Regional MLS has published their report for this month.  

 

January is the 8th consecutive month of increased sales comparing months year to year.  January 2009 had 4742 closings that is a 63% increase over January of 2008 with only 2912 closings.  

 

January 2008 was the slowest month for closing in the past 8 years.  I don’t expect we will see that 63% increase again next month.  Time will tell though. 

 

The closings in January and in the past few months are more comparable to those in 2001, 2002 and 2003.   This is all good news, there are still a lot of homes on the market and hopefully, we will see the inventory start to lower as well, when that happens prices will stabilize.

Foreclosures and the Adult Communites

Although there are no adult communities within McCormick Ranch, our initial website is focused on Active Adult Communities and we work with many 55+ buyers.   

We are seeing lots of numbers being published for the ratios of Bank Owned and Short Sale properties in the valley.   We are not seeing those same numbers in the Adult Communities.   Since it is a cold rainy day, I have been playing with numbers and really surprised myself with what I found!

Taking only single family detached homes in the entire MLS for the valley, a total of 41,832 this morning, 10,796 of them were Bank Owned and an additional 9,003 were Short Sales.  Those numbers round off to 25% of the single family homes on the general market are bank owned and another 21% are short sales.  

Current MLS Single Family Homes on the market, with Bank Owned and Short Sale

Current MLS Single Family Homes on the market, with Bank Owned and Short Sale

 

 

BUT when you look at the Active Adult Community 55+ single family homes, there are a total of 2819 on the market.  Of that 2819 only 52 are bank owned and 63 are short sales which works out to 2% of the homes are bank owned and another 2% are short sales.

Current active single family home listings in adult communities comparing bank owned/ foreclosure and short sale

Current active single family home listings in adult communities comparing bank owned/ foreclosure and short sale

 

 

HMMMM  kinda makes you wonder.    Our 55+ citizens have indeed saved for their retirement homes, their financing is minimal and their risk taking days are in the past.

There were very few zero down,  or investor homes sold in these communities in the 2005 and 2006 sales surge.    I believe it is the investors who did get in to these adult communities, that are making up the Bank Owned and Short Sale properties.

State of the Phoenix Housing Market

The worst month for home sales in Maricopa County (the greater Phoenix area) was January 2008. There were a total of 2,912 homes that closed and sold. The lowest number in 8 years or more. From there the number of homes sold each month improved with our banner month in June. In June, 2008 (5,748 homes sold) we had more homes sold than June 2007 (5,438). That started a trend where month over month we have had more homes sold than in 2007. It has continued thru the rest of the year.

What does this mean? It means we have hit the lowest spot in our market and are starting to see recovery. Does this mean housing prices are headed up again? Not necessarily. We still have an inventory of 47,396 homes on the market, and 6,139 listings waiting to close. That is still a lot of competition.

There are currently 34,846 listings under 350k. This is important because it is the FHA loan limit. And the price point of most of the home sales. Of those properties priced under 350k, 10,231 are foreclosure properties. Just under 1/3. Foreclosures are driving the market and will continue to do so for a while.

The good news is our market is showing signs of recovery for the past 6 months.

85258 McCormick Ranch area home statistics

This month we have seen a slight increase in the number of listings, and decrease in the number of sold and pending properties.  It could be we are leveling out.  The summer months are not a popular time for seasonal people to come purchase a property.  It is when families are looking to get into their new home before the schools start for the new year.  Check out the pending status for Single Family homes, the only group to keep the numbers strong.  Summer will soon be over, and the cooler months will arrive.  With snow up north we will see more visitors, and more of the condos and patio homes selling.

 

 

2-May-08

6-Jun-08

7-Jul-08

3-Aug-08

Total Active Listings

554

507

475

483

Single Family Homes

285

253

242

249

Patio/Town/Gemini Homes

149

128

127

129

Apartment style Homes

120

126

106

105

Total Pending Listings

79

51

67

56

Single Family Homes

37

23

33

34

Patio/Town/Gemini Homes

26

17

14

7

Apartment style Homes

16

11

20

15

April

May

June

July

Total Sold 

55

68

51

45

Single Family Homes

32

35

23

21

Patio/Town/Gemini Homes

14

19

16

10

Apartment style Homes

9

14

12

14

85258 Sales Statistics

Looking at the numbers from this past month we have a growing positive trend.  Currently the number of active listings is decreasing, we are seeing the lowest number of actively listed homes in quite a while.  Where last month there was a dip in the number of homes pending, we see that show up in this months closings.  With the increase of pending’s again, we should see a strong number of sold by the end of the month.

 

  3-Mar-08 4-Apr-08 2-May-08 6-Jun-08 7-Jul-08
Total Active Listings 556 572 554 507 475
Single Family Homes 279 287 285 253 242
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 150 167 149 128 127
Apartment style Homes 127 118 120 126 106
           
Total Pending Listings 72 70 79 51 67
Single Family Homes 33 39 37 23 33
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 22 17 26 17 14
Apartment style Homes 17 14 16 11 20
  Feb March April May June
Total Sold  42 55 55 68 51
Single Family Homes 21 19 32 35 23
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 17 21 14 19 16
Apartment style Homes 4 15 9 14 12
           
Average Sales Price          
Single Family Homes 590k 761k 640 600 662
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 529k 440k 494 429 353
Apartment style Homes 155k 173k 244 260 190

McCormick Ranch Sales numbers for April 2008

The numbers are looking good.  We have even reduced the number of active listings just a bit.  The total pending sales are remaining steady, and also see a bit of an incline.  The solds remain steady.  This is a good sign.  Each month we are anxious to see the pending and more importantly the sold listings remaining steady and hopefully increase.    The true test will come in the coming months.  Without all of the big crowd pleasers (Super bowl, Barrett Jackson, Nascar etc) and with the increase of our temps over the upcoming months, our northern visitors will be mostly out of the picture.  We will know in another couple of months if this was a seasonal influx or a true measure of the change in the market. 

  1-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Apr-08 2-May-08
Total Active Listings 578 556 572 554
Single Family Homes 277 279 287 285
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 157 150 167 149
Apartment style Homes 144 127 118 120
         
Total Pending Listings 57 72 70 79
Single Family Homes 36 33 39 37
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 17 22 17 26
Apartment style Homes 4 17 14 16
  Jan Feb March  April
Total Sold  29 42 55 55
Single Family Homes 14 21 19 32
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 11 17 21 14
Apartment style Homes 4 4 15 9

 

March Statistics for McCormick Ranch, and 85258 zip code

It is the beginning of April, time to take a look at March’s numbers.  The total number of listings is up a little more than 2%.  The great news is the number of pending contracts is staying at the level of last month.  With an increase of closed properties as is expected with the increase of pending contracts last month.  I am looking forward to seeing this trend continue…

The average price of the single family homes that sold is just over $760,000, with the patio home/ town home/ gemini homes averaging $440,000 down from last month.  The average on apartment styled properties was just over $170,000 up from last month.

 

  2-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 4-Apr-08
Total Active Listings 523 578 556 572
Single Family Homes 246 277 279 287
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 153 157 150 167
Apartment style Homes 124 144 127 118
         
Total Pending Listings 36 57 72 70
Single Family Homes 19 36 33 39
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 11 17 22 17
Apartment style Homes 6 4 17 14
  Dec Jan Feb March
Total Sold  38 29 42 55
Single Family Homes 17 14 21 19
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 11 11 17 21
Apartment style Homes 10 4 4 15

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85258 Real Estate Statistics for February

< ![CDATA[This months stats are looking good.  We have a nice increase in the number of pending homes.  These reflect the sales that took place in February and are waiting to close.  Notice the dip in the number of closed homes in January, those are the homes that sold during the holiday season in December.  We should see an even better number next month, with 72 pending contracts ‘in the hopper’.

The average price of a single family home that closed last month is $590,000
The average price of a town home/patio home was skewed a bit with a $1.5 million sale, so eliminating that from the average it was $473,000
and the average apartment style was $155,00.  It will be interesting to see that number adjust with the increase in pendings (17) from the category.

  26-Nov-07 2-Jan-08 1-Feb-08 3-Mar-08
Total Active Listings 568 523 578 556
Single Family Homes 264 246 277 279
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 168 153 157 150
Apartment style Homes 136 124 144 127
         
Total Pending Listings 51 36 57 72
Single Family Homes 21 19 36 33
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 17 11 17 22
Apartment style Homes 13 6 4 17
  Nov Dec Jan Feb
Total Sold  36 38 29 42
Single Family Homes 14 17 14 21
Patio/Town/Gemini Homes 10 11 11 17
Apartment style Homes 12 10 4 4

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